Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf596…8c31
politics · 173 markets active 559d ago
0.0score
+$52,169 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52,169 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$52,169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses76 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
Avg bet$4,048
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1,655 $0 −$1,655 (-100%)
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? No 30¢ 0¢ $313 $0 −$313 (-100%)
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $7,463 $0 −$7,463 (-100%)
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1,797 $0 −$1,797 (-100%)
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2,681 $0 −$2,681 (-100%)
Will Pennsylvania be the closest state? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1,088 $0 −$1,088 (-100%)
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $399 $0 −$399 (-100%)
Will the Democratic candidate win Wisconsin by 4.0% or more? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,229 $0 −$4,229 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%? Nov 30 $324 −$98 -30%
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Nov 30 $399 −$399 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1%? Nov 29 $114 +$10 +8%
Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 4.0% or more? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will North Carolina be the closest state? Nov 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Minnesota be the closest state? Nov 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win North Carolina by 1%-2.0%? Nov 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arizona be the closest state? Nov 29 $231 −$231 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Michigan by 4.0% or more? Nov 25 $82 −$82 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 25 $5,066 −$4,510 -89%
GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%? Nov 24 $686 +$222 +32%
Will the Democratic candidate win Georgia by 0%-1.0%? Nov 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points? Nov 20 $1,946 +$285 +15%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Nov 16 $4,348 −$4,322 -99%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 16 $308 −$308 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House Nov 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? Nov 13 $6,272 +$1,970 +31%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? Nov 13 $642 +$1,837 +286%
Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election? Nov 13 $4,324 +$2,820 +65%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%? Nov 13 $226 +$11 +5%
Will Harris win Minnesota by 3+ points? Nov 13 $16,936 +$922 +5%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? Nov 13 $411 −$398 -97%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1.0%? Nov 13 $226 +$17 +7%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Nov 12 $330 −$309 -94%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Nov 12 $509 +$644 +127%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 12 $46,514 −$1,768 -4%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 12 $33,334 −$3,504 -10%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ Nov 11 $24 −$24 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 Nov 11 $153 −$153 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 Nov 11 $232 −$232 -100%
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 09 $1,514 −$1,514 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 09 $17,649 −$11,781 -67%
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election? Nov 09 $2,083 −$131 -6%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 09 $13,492 −$1,967 -15%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 08 $6,198 −$2,334 -38%
Will a Democrat win Alaska Presidential Election? Nov 08 $1,585 −$314 -20%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Nov 08 $1,642 −$284 -17%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Nov 08 $2,097 −$2,097 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 08 $757 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state? Nov 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election? Nov 07 $3,227 −$3,227 -100%
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? Nov 07 $6,948 +$21,887 +315%
Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election? Nov 07 $2,442 −$2,442 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election? Nov 07 $616 −$6 -1%
Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election? Nov 07 $800 −$99 -12%
Kamala wins Pennsylvania but loses the Election? Nov 07 $284 −$284 -100%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 07 $31,002 −$4,307 -14%
Trump wins a solid blue state? Nov 07 $10,414 −$518 -5%
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 07 $417 −$38 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 71% +$6,096
economics 19% +$67,686
other 7% −$28,298
world 2% +$5,983
tech 0% −$286
sports 0% +$570
crypto 0% +$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $193 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $78 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $22 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 559d
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 559d
Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1%? SELL No 100¢ $124 559d
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%? SELL No 99¢ $241 559d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 564d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 173 -12.7% -21.1% 44% 26% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 26% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 20% -11.6%
15% -35.5% 16% -20.2%
20% -41.8% 12% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2769 history records