Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 4 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33,237
7 days+$39,127
14 days+$29,629
30 days+$13,542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $4,425 $4,387 −$37 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $900 $975 +$75 (+8%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $335 $692 +$357 (+106%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $251 $199 −$52 (-21%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 15¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 40¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 45¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $4,999 $0 −$4,999 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 35¢ $5,290 $0 −$5,290 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $720 $0 −$720 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) Belal Muhammad 51¢ $1,775 $0 −$1,775 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 40¢ $2,800 $0 −$2,800 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $5,400 $0 −$5,400 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 55¢ $1,650 $0 −$1,650 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) Spurs 51¢ $3,580 $0 −$3,580 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $360 −$103 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23,503 +$33,340 +142%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11,280 −$200 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $1,741 +$1,332 +76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $3,345 −$1,650 -49%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $1,218 +$27 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4,155 −$225 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $715 +$572 +80%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,801 −$1,775 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $407 −$400 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $738 −$720 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6,557 +$13,027 +199%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $4,099 −$4,099 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $378 +$322 +85%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1,053 +$180 +17%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5,416 −$5,400 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $225 −$225 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $4,600 +$395 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5,122 −$4,999 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $266 +$369 +139%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $930 +$568 +61%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $7,527 −$450 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $2,655 −$259 -10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5,379 −$5,290 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,850 −$2,800 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $3,625 −$3,580 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $1,035 +$963 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,787 +$2,208 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $535 −$535 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $3,064 +$2,636 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 23 $508 −$508 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $367 −$367 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 23 $337 −$337 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 23 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 23 $654 −$558 -85%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 23 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 23 $5,865 −$5,865 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $3,404 −$3,404 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $410 −$391 -95%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $517 +$483 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $2,775 +$3,225 +116%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $106 −$92 -86%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $100 +$56 +56%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,560 +$5,126 +200%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $829 +$1,971 +238%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 02 $209 +$411 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$29,299
other 12% +$1,226
politics 4% −$4,898
crypto 3% −$5,196
world 2% −$197
culture 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $11 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $235 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $1 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $12 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $19 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $413 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $2 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $4 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $211 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $1 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $8 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $0 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $1 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $5 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $11 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $652 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $0 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $0 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $1 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $0 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $17 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $6 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $7 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $58 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $3 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $0 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $26 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $8 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $2 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $89 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.7% -25.5% 38% 31% +72.5%
≤30d 47 -31.9% -38.4% 34% 30% +2.7%
≤90d 75 -35.4% -41.5% 31% 27% +2.6%
all 107 -17.7% -25.6% 41% 36% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 36% +3.1%
10% -32.7% 34% -6.8%
15% -39.2% 30% -15.8%
20% -45.1% 29% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,253.48 · official $6,253.48 (match) · 1146 history records