Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf591…fc3e
other · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$57 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$36
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 5 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 34¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$5 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$41 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 +$6 +48%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$11 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% −$27
sports 21% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.2% -43.2% 42% 33% -25.3%
≤30d 12 -37.2% -43.2% 42% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 12 -37.2% -43.2% 42% 33% -25.3%
all 12 -37.2% -43.2% 42% 33% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 33% -25.3%
10% -48.6% 25% -32.5%
15% -53.6% 25% -39.0%
20% -58.2% 17% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.66 · official $35.66 (match) · 29 history records