Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf58f…9ebc politics 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$16
other 29% −$5
economics 13% −$2
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 89 -9.4% -18.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage663d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Keyonte George lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 202 Feb 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 25 $54 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Elon Musk arrested in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Orlando City win the MLS Cup? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC south? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 21d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 23d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 23d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 36d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 37d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 42d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 43d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 47d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 52d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 52d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $55 71d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $55 71d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 90d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 91d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 99d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 99¢ $55 103d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $55 103d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 100¢ $55 108d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 100¢ $55 108d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 111d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 112d
Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY No 100¢ $55 136d
Will Keyonte George lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 202 SELL No 100¢ $54 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records