Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf58e…a0b0 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$775 (+9%) realized +$781 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%34W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$659
7 days+$1,633
14 days+$1,496
30 days+$1,792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$432
sports 28% +$647
other 21% +$551
tech 15% +$476
politics 4% −$296
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +41.2% +27.8% 71% 68% +40.2%
≤30d 38 +88.1% +70.2% 71% 68% +33.7%
≤90d 58 +38.1% +25.0% 52% 50% +3.0%
all 64 +32.4% +19.8% 53% 48% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 48% +2.0%
10% +8.4% 48% -7.7%
15% -2.1% 44% -16.6%
20% -11.7% 39% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$84 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$680
Realized+$781
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses34 / 30
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions14
Markets (closed)64 / 78
History coverage109d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $100 $168 +$68 (+68%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the World Cup? Yes 14¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $29 −$21 (-43%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ $21 $10 −$11 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $76 +$27 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $53 +$23 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$9 -34%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $66 +$36 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 +$40 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$45 +79%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$19 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$72 +200%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$15 -30%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$24 +93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $457 +$281 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $814 +$196 +24%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$75 +146%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $255 +$388 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $835 −$410 -49%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $15 +$273 +1822%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $30 +$17 +55%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $158 +$268 +170%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $50 +$66 +133%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $300 −$296 -99%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $150 +$136 +91%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $250 −$187 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $76 50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $17 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $53 11h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $76 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 11h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 11h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $66 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $62 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $102 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $57 12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $26 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $108 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $79 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $139 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 34h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $76 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $36 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.21 · official $683.30 (match) · 235 history records