Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf58c…2747 crypto 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$423 (+4%) realized +$550 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%92W / 137L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$516
7 days−$314
14 days−$266
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$346
other 13% +$442
sports 13% +$164
finance 6% +$70
world 6% +$273
tech 4% −$76
politics 2% −$257
economics 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -26.6% -33.6% 21% 19% -32.9%
≤30d 137 -16.5% -24.5% 34% 31% -18.3%
≤90d 138 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 32% -16.1%
all 229 -13.7% -21.9% 40% 38% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -6.5%
10% -29.4% 34% -15.4%
15% -36.2% 28% -23.6%
20% -42.5% 21% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$28 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized+$550
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses92 / 137
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)229 / 245
History coverage594d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 87¢ 81¢ $400 $374 −$26 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-41%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $75 $17 −$58 (-78%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$35 -68%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$38 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $130 −$22 -17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$38 +366%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 +$19 +9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $25 −$16 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$24 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 77¢ $48 16h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 40¢ $31 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $82 39h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 39h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.58 · official $837.63 (match) · 610 history records