Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf58b…38b2
sports · 368 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$271 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$484 · open −$213
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,457
Realized+$484
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses176 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions16
Markets (closed)352 / 368
History coverage614d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 16 History 352 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$192
14 days+$121
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,027 +$27 (+3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,009 +$9 (+1%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $454 $401 −$54 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $546 $390 −$156 (-29%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $60 $94 +$34 (+57%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-10%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$26 -72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$65 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$54 +178%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $280 +$6 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$61 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$23 +219%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $103 +$203 +197%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $436 +$32 +7%
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +54%
Celtics vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $250 +$10 +4%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 06 $138 −$84 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 −$20 -20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $51 +$23 +44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $44 −$21 -48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $61 +$32 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 27 $20 +$123 +614%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $30 −$4 -15%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $9 −$8 -94%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5 May 05 $20 +$20 +97%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Thunder Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $25 +$16 +62%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $15 +$27 +182%
Will Ben Johnson win NFL Coach of the Year? Feb 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 26? Jan 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 27 $20 +$32 +162%
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 27 $2,757 +$6 +0%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $20 −$18 -90%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year? Jan 26 $64 +$47 +72%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $25 +$17 +70%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $20 +$11 +54%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $20 +$23 +117%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $20 +$25 +126%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $2,948 +$64 +2%
Will Sean Payton win NFL Coach of the Year? Dec 29 $10 −$8 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$522
sports 18% +$134
politics 16% −$285
crypto 15% −$30
tech 3% −$29
finance 0% −$16
economics 0% −$16
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $126 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $41 28h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 97¢ $102 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $11 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $22 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $189 3d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $280 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $10 4d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY No 96¢ $250 7d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn SELL Yes 22¢ $53 7d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 55¢ $96 7d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 55¢ $14 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 54¢ $81 7d
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote BUY No 93¢ $436 8d
Will Apple announce a new product line during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY No 64¢ $5 8d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 67¢ $11 8d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 54¢ $2 8d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 51¢ $4 8d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 33% +2.1%
≤30d 25 +27.7% +15.5% 52% 40% +3.2%
≤90d 31 +19.2% +7.8% 48% 39% +3.0%
all 352 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 40% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 34% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 30% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 26% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,457.11 · official $3,457.11 (match) · 1247 history records