Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf588…04fa sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$735 (-48%) realized −$540 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$967
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -54.7% -59.0% 20% 20% -62.6%
≤30d 5 -54.7% -59.0% 20% 20% -62.6%
≤90d 5 -54.7% -59.0% 20% 20% -62.6%
all 5 -54.7% -59.0% 20% 20% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 20% -62.6%
10% -62.9% 20% -66.2%
15% -66.5% 20% -69.4%
20% -69.8% 20% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$269 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$540
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $196 $1 −$195 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $544 −$544 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $250 −$250 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $240 +$304 +127%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $279 −$279 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $202 1h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $544 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $240 20h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $250 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $279 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 11 history records