Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F5 0xf584…be20 crypto 1390 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$715 (+2%) realized +$722 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%654W / 606L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day116.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,524
7 days−$1,343
14 days−$5
30 days+$2,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,882
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 582 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 43% -16.6%
≤30d 1260 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 51% -4.2%
≤90d 1260 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 51% -4.2%
all 1260 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 51% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 51% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 50% -13.3%
15% -23.3% 49% -21.7%
20% -30.8% 49% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$722
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses654 / 606
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1260 / 1390
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day116.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 50¢ 64¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 51¢ 20¢ $17 $6 −$10 (-62%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 51¢ 66¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $7 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.94 · official $112.47 · 3500 history records