trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 70¢ | $2,146 | $2,297 | +$150 (+7%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $137 | $136 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 58¢ | $111 | $108 | −$3 (-2%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 82¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $9,740 | −$227 | -2% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$10 | +97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $164 | −$164 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $66 | +$12 | +18% |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -80% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 12 | $951 | +$68 | +7% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Jun 12 | $1,045 | +$21 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $1,869 | −$1,704 | -91% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $581 | +$105 | +18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $848 | +$175 | +21% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $43 | +$69 | +158% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $30 | +$13 | +41% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $48 | −$7 | -15% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 08 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 07 | $5,901 | +$201 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2,168 | +$369 | +17% |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | May 28 | $168 | −$9 | -5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 28 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | May 28 | $127 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 28 | $249 | +$3 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 67% | 40% | -15.6% |
| ≤30d | 20 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 60% | 35% | -13.6% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 60% | 35% | -13.6% |
| all | 20 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 60% | 35% | -13.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.4% | 35% | -13.6% |
| 10% | -14.5% | 15% | -21.8% |
| 15% | -22.7% | 15% | -29.4% |
| 20% | -30.3% | 10% | -36.3% |