Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf57e…bbd6 sports 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,503 (-4%) realized −$25,119 · open −$384
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%134W / 136L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,562per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3,852est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$7,124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,257
7 days−$7,224
14 days−$13,669
30 days−$23,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$15,268
other 43% −$43,739
world 0% −$2,556
crypto 0% +$1,004
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.2% -30.5% 38% 25% -30.3%
≤30d 21 -43.1% -48.5% 29% 19% -43.9%
≤90d 189 -26.1% -33.1% 39% 38% -34.2%
all 270 -4.6% -13.6% 50% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 47% -21.7%
15% -29.5% 47% -29.2%
20% -36.4% 45% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,538) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,042 vs −$2,229 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$7,124
Realized−$25,119
Unrealized−$384
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses134 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3,852
Open positions2
Markets (closed)270 / 272
History coverage161d
Avg bet$2,562
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $2,544 $4,798 +$2,254 (+89%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2,350 $2,325 −$25 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 18¢ 0¢ $360 $1 −$359 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,545 −$2,498 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $2,498 +$4,502 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10,001 +$253 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $6,171 −$6,100 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3,114 +$3,146 +101%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,528 −$2,500 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,250 −$1,568 -70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,499 −$2,459 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $2,013 −$1,980 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,522 −$1,517 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $512 −$52 -10%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,463 −$2,514 -56%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,568 +$115 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,487 −$2,450 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,971 +$1,949 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,493 +$1,004 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,379 −$4,321 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $2,538 −$762 -30%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,522 −$2,500 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,331 −$2,294 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,195 −$2,170 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,538 −$2,500 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $2,487 −$125 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2,820 +$2,150 +76%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,404 −$983 -29%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2,187 −$2,150 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2,737 +$2,258 +82%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $2,600 −$2,563 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $2,487 −$2,450 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2,036 +$277 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $2,538 −$2,500 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $2,487 −$75 -3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,837 −$2,800 -99%
Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5) May 17 $1,893 −$1,861 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,986 −$2,950 -99%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2,627 +$1,373 +52%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 16 $2,187 −$2,150 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,588 −$2,556 -99%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,407 −$153 -6%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 16 $2,539 +$2,669 +105%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $1,222 −$1,200 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $2,687 +$2,313 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25? May 13 $2,592 −$2,592 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5) May 13 $2,544 −$2,544 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) May 13 $2,498 −$2,498 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) May 13 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? May 13 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 May 13 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $369 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,580 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,387 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2,545 23h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 35¢ $714 29h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 35¢ $1,784 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 69¢ $10,254 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $10,001 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $6,171 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3,114 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2,528 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 14¢ $682 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $1,334 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $583 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $78 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $4 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $4 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $64 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $68 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $45 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $4 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $68 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $2,499 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $2,013 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $402 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,120 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 36¢ $1,019 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 17¢ $460 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 18¢ $512 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 53¢ $914 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,123.60 · official $7,123.60 (match) · 1216 history records