Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf57d…829c crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,851 (+2%) realized +$1,764 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate81%114W / 27L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$867per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$160
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,764
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -20.0% -27.7% 69% 12% -8.7%
≤30d 69 -14.4% -22.6% 71% 16% -8.8%
≤90d 141 -7.3% -16.1% 81% 11% -8.2%
all 141 -7.3% -16.1% 81% 11% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 11% -8.2%
10% -24.2% 9% -17.0%
15% -31.5% 7% -25.0%
20% -38.2% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,409) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×7.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.4 per $1 lost it wins $33.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses114 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage83d
Avg bet$867
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1,563 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,552 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1,542 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1,548 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1,534 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $898 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $955 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $1,505 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1,491 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $1,478 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $1,465 +$14 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,563 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,551 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records