Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf57c…c9f6 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$703 · open −$684
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day81.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$320
other 1% −$1
sports 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 36% +2.7%
≤30d 22 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 36% +2.7%
≤90d 22 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 36% +2.7%
all 22 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 36% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 36% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 36% -7.2%
15% -21.6% 23% -16.1%
20% -29.3% 23% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$42 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$703
Unrealized−$684
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day81.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $264 $1 −$264 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $361 $0 −$361 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $187 −$34 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $192 +$184 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $439 −$78 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $328 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $322 −$106 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $308 +$74 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $355 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $159 −$151 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$82 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$189 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$244 +309%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $159 +$37 +23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 +$18 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.16 · official $2.16 (match) · 214 history records