Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf576…a786
weather · 745 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$610 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$593 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$137
Realized+$593
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses626 / 111
Open positions8
Markets (closed)737 / 745
History coverage276d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 737 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$436
14 days−$273
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $54 $60 +$6 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 72¢ 100¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 82¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 77¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? No 77¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$55 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$29 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $162 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 −$39 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $87 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 −$67 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $188 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 −$11 -22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $44 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $134 +$39 +29%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $92 +$13 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $58 +$11 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $90 −$55 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 −$29 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 −$16 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $103 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $386 −$20 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$30 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $129 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$18 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $129 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 4? Jun 07 $0 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 07 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 07 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $211 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $143 +$16 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 05 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $152 +$17 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$645
politics 1% −$29
world 0% −$4
other 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL No 91¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 29¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 59¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 13¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $86 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 6¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $36 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $87 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $47 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $42 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $94 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $104 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $55 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.1% -21.4% 58% 27% -20.7%
≤30d 243 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 38% -10.1%
≤90d 689 +1.6% -8.1% 89% 39% -7.9%
all 737 +1.3% -8.4% 85% 39% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 39% -8.0%
10% -17.1% 16% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 6% -24.8%
20% -32.5% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.37 · official $137.37 (match) · 1942 history records