Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf574…b0b8
crypto · 378 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$977 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$993 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$993
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses178 / 172
Open positions28
Markets (closed)350 / 378
History coverage226d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 28 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$54
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 45¢ 68¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+52%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$995
other 12% −$6
politics 9% $0
tech 0% +$15
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 52% -9.0%
≤30d 96 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -20.4%
≤90d 221 -34.0% -40.3% 35% 34% -88.8%
all 350 -5.5% -14.5% 51% 46% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 46% -18.5%
10% -22.7% 43% -26.3%
15% -30.2% 42% -33.4%
20% -37.0% 40% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.82 · official $51.90 (match) · 845 history records