Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf573…e1d5 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$29
other 34% +$22
sports 12% +$12
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 25% -4.6%
≤30d 48 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 25% -4.6%
≤90d 48 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 25% -4.6%
all 59 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 25% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 25% -8.6%
10% -21.3% 20% -17.3%
15% -28.9% 19% -25.3%
20% -35.9% 15% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage106d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 +$19 +52%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $48 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +186%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$53 +1290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9PM ET Mar 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $56 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2 BUY 2¢ $10 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both BUY 16¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records