Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf572…0b45 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-2%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 33% −$18
other 32% −$124
tech 24% +$37
politics 5% −$22
crypto 4% +$24
world 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 8% -14.3%
≤30d 12 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 8% -14.3%
≤90d 12 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 8% -14.3%
all 31 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 35% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 35% -11.2%
10% -18.0% 6% -19.7%
15% -25.9% 3% -27.5%
20% -33.2% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage170d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 20 $36 −$7 -20%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $96 −$1 -1%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 19 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $49 −$15 -31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $468 −$4 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 13 $465 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 10 $1,799 −$18 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 08 $9 +$11 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 10AM ET Feb 08 $9 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 04 $810 +$20 +2%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 04 $1,177 −$117 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 33m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 43m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 43m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 43m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 44m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 45m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $92 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $46 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $46 1h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 7¢ $3 4h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 7¢ $2 5h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 7¢ $1 5h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL No 4¢ $5 6h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY No 3¢ $1 11h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY No 4¢ $0 11h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY No 4¢ $2 12h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY No 4¢ $2 12h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 76¢ $5 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 76¢ $5 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records