Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf572…1142 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$145 (+37%) realized +$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% +18.9%
≤30d 6 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% +18.9%
≤90d 6 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% +18.9%
all 6 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% +18.9%
10% -21.3% 50% +7.5%
15% -28.9% 33% -2.9%
20% -35.9% 33% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$21 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $83 +$97 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $214 +$71 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$36 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $285 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $200 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records