Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf56d…c3d9 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,888 (-21%) realized −$1,596 · open −$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,134per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,584
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-62.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -58.9% -62.8% 14% 14% -57.8%
≤30d 7 -58.9% -62.8% 14% 14% -57.8%
≤90d 7 -58.9% -62.8% 14% 14% -57.8%
all 7 -58.9% -62.8% 14% 14% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.8% 14% -57.8%
10% -66.4% 14% -61.8%
15% ← realistic here -69.6% 14% -65.5%
20% -72.6% 14% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,454 vs −$794 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,596
Unrealized−$292
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,134
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 12¢ 0¢ $294 $1 −$292 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$20 -20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $768 −$750 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,357 +$1,454 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,387 −$1,361 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,340 −$1,312 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $694 −$679 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $655 −$643 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 37¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 37¢ $308 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 11¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 12¢ $359 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $1,725 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $326 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $578 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $528 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $843 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $257 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $205 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $255 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $1,611 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $453 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $357 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $2,811 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $178 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $686 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $671 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 8¢ $103 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 21¢ $256 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 32¢ $342 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $179 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $507 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $21 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 17¢ $320 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 33¢ $332 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $1.24 (match) · 39 history records