Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F5 0xf56c…e783 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$945 (+2%) realized +$928 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate71%76W / 31L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days+$30
14 days+$220
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$40
other 36% +$269
politics 17% +$521
culture 1% −$29
world 1% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 26% -9.3%
≤30d 61 -8.3% -17.1% 72% 26% -8.6%
≤90d 63 -7.9% -16.7% 73% 25% -8.4%
all 107 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 22% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 22% -7.8%
10% -23.7% 10% -16.6%
15% -31.1% 5% -24.6%
20% -37.8% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$47 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$2,430
Realized+$928
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses76 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions11
Markets (closed)107 / 118
History coverage365d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Switzerland 97¢ 97¢ $769 $769 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Austria 99¢ 94¢ $700 $671 −$29 (-4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 88¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 97¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $129 $131 +$3 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 62¢ $127 $117 −$10 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $48 $83 +$34 (+71%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 −$68 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $300 +$10 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $501 +$21 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $499 +$21 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $201 −$192 -96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $86 −$69 -80%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,001 +$25 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$62 -62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$8 +16%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$9 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-4.5) Jun 19 $128 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $504 +$7 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $672 +$44 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $300 +$2 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 18 $301 +$31 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 −$39 -39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $17 −$3 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$37 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,041 +$69 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $600 +$13 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$44 -15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,017 +$62 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $921 −$6 -1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 14 $2,968 +$227 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $202 −$8 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $700 1m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $34 4h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 63¢ $13 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 97¢ $300 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 65¢ $12 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 70¢ $36 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 66¢ $67 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $501 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 28h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 96¢ $499 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 37h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Sweden 4¢ $9 37h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 84¢ $100 38h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 84¢ $100 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 39h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $101 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 32¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $17 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $38 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 98¢ $500 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 97¢ $500 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 97¢ $770 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1,003 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,430.45 · official $2,430.45 (match) · 662 history records