Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf56c…ad84 weather 872 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1395 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$5,711 (+115%) realized +$5,462 · open +$249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%23W / 273L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1394.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$117
weather 23% +$1,288
other 9% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1395 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 +30.7% +18.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤30d 296 +30.7% +18.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 296 +30.7% +18.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
all 296 +30.7% +18.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1394.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.3% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here +7.0% 6% -18.4%
15% -3.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -12.8% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +161% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$2 · ×26.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$950
Realized+$5,462
Unrealized+$249
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses23 / 273
Open positions231
Markets (closed)296 / 872
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1394.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 231 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $144 $171 +$27 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $130 $155 +$25 (+19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $158 $145 −$13 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 91¢ $3 $91 +$88 (+2927%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 64¢ $3 $64 +$62 (+2050%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $2 $63 +$61 (+3225%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 21¢ $3 $21 +$18 (+592%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 88¢ $1 $18 +$17 (+2850%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+483%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 17¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+460%)
Will Colombia be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+103%)
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+275%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 10¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+4825%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+334%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+595%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+2675%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+1700%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+77%)
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+160%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+565%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+123%)
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 3¢ 28¢ $0 $5 +$4 (+850%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 13? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.65 · official $949.69 (match) · 3500 history records