Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf568…efab sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$239 (-21%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$301
other 4% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 43% +11.7%
≤30d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 43% +11.7%
≤90d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 43% +11.7%
all 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 43% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 43% +11.7%
10% -27.7% 43% +1.0%
15% -34.7% 43% -8.8%
20% -41.1% 43% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$116 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $300 +$429 +143%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 27 $44 −$43 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $44 −$43 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $190 +$156 +82%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $282 −$277 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $146 +$136 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records