Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf567…d3ef world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,419 (-5%) realized −$843 · open −$1,576
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,491per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$12,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$50
14 days+$73
30 days−$899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$2,693
other 16% +$202
sports 0% +$16
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 0% -11.8%
all 32 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 0% -11.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,750) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$91 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$12,582
Realized−$843
Unrealized−$1,576
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1,491
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $7,805 $7,056 −$749 (-10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $3,712 $2,140 −$1,572 (-42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1,193 $2,034 +$841 (+70%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1,448 $1,352 −$95 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $3,511 −$123 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, Jun 29 $3,113 +$133 +4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1,080 +$40 +4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 27 $182 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $16 $0 -1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 24 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $320 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $170 $0 -0%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 17 $867 +$23 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 15 $280 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 14 $1,230 −$137 -11%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $223 −$10 -4%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 13 $83 −$26 -32%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $606 +$55 +9%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $194 +$13 +7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 12 $1,698 −$9 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3,100 −$200 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2,511 +$94 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,450 +$65 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $453 +$27 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $8,812 −$273 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $37 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $2,181 −$535 -24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $640 +$11 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,750 −$50 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,448 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $3,345 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL No 59¢ $1,821 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $2 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $16 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $157 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $49 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $255 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $114 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $18 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $24 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $13 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $24 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $132 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $19 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $16 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $18 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $16 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $5 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $30 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $123 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $3 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $3 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $15 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $15 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $3 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $16 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $4 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 32¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,582.10 · official $12,583.10 (match) · 540 history records