Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf564…1eed sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-31%) realized −$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% -48.1%
≤30d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% -48.1%
≤90d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% -48.1%
all 8 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 38% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 38% -48.1%
10% -33.5% 38% -53.1%
15% -40.0% 38% -57.6%
20% -45.8% 38% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$36 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 46¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ 48¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 35¢ 34¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 +$29 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $11 +$17 +152%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $27 +$27 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $34 8m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $16 39m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $18 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $12 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $13 45h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $44 45h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $61 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $11 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $19 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $25 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $30 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $27 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.58 · official $77.59 (match) · 21 history records