Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf562…4099 world 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,997 (-3%) realized −$3,014 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%80W / 77L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$666per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days−$1,014
14 days−$973
30 days−$855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$1,578
crypto 7% −$3,948
other 2% −$192
sports 2% +$1
finance 2% −$262
politics 1% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 25% 25% -21.8%
≤30d 18 -8.2% -17.0% 61% 22% -12.3%
≤90d 49 -12.5% -20.8% 59% 24% -8.6%
all 157 -5.2% -14.2% 51% 32% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 32% -11.5%
10% -22.4% 24% -20.0%
15% -29.9% 17% -27.7%
20% -36.8% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$195 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$2,854
Realized−$3,014
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses80 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)157 / 160
History coverage520d
Avg bet$666
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $2,808 $2,824 +$16 (+1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 19¢ 20¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,997 +$219 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,678 −$878 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,716 −$346 -9%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$8 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $65 +$40 +62%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 09 $64 +$1 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,012 −$999 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $607 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $581 +$26 +4%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 31 $1,390 +$103 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 31 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 May 30 $13 +$2 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $10,578 +$1,209 +11%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $1,089 −$75 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $5,065 −$173 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $95 +$9 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $469 +$76 +16%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 06 $488 +$24 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $121 +$66 +54%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 03 $1,079 +$84 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $7,426 +$442 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Apr 30 $108 +$39 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $183 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 27 $4,712 +$757 +16%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $39 −$36 -94%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 26 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $4,517 +$183 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 24 $329 −$145 -44%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 23 $448 +$19 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 19 $300 −$227 -76%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 19 $50 +$51 +102%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 19 $118 +$8 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 19 $1,516 −$43 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 19 $999 −$69 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 12 $179 +$19 +10%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $50 −$2 -3%
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $2,612 +$100 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $89 +$21 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $340 +$200 +59%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Apr 11 $456 −$456 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? Apr 11 $22 −$22 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? Apr 11 $89 −$89 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 09 $234 +$16 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 09 $4,184 +$470 +11%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $813 −$9 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $10 14m
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $109 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $20 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $19 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $3 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $187 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $90 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $185 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $140 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $42 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $89 6d
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $91 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $496 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $204 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $293 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $52 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $202 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $145 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $177 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $274 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $177 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $660 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $660 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,854.31 · official $2,854.31 (match) · 1869 history records