Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf561…f20d crypto 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$518 (+3%) realized +$519 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%142W / 60L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$659
7 days−$346
14 days−$60
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$50
sports 31% +$16
other 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -3.2% -12.4% 65% 47% -15.1%
≤30d 202 -1.1% -10.5% 70% 46% -9.3%
≤90d 202 -1.1% -10.5% 70% 46% -9.3%
all 202 -1.1% -10.5% 70% 46% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 46% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 29% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 20% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$49 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$519
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses142 / 60
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)202 / 204
History coverage15d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$50 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -91%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $46 −$13 -28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $111 −$87 -78%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 +$9 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $21 +$9 +41%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $107 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $227 −$226 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$27 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$35 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$2 -12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $31 −$28 -91%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$17 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $60 +$6 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $404 +$122 +30%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $213 −$9 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$19 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $121 −$100 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $174 +$90 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$94 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$147 -73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$38 -38%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $31 +$61 +198%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$30 +99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$17 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 +$35 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $56 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $60 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $51 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 4¢ $7 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $111 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $51 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 7¢ $29 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $49 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $21 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $107 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $40 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $227 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.40 · official $108.66 (match) · 526 history records