Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf55e…8dff crypto 1443 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$529 (+1%) realized +$540 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate92%1332W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day95.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$127
14 days+$274
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$16
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 15% -9.0%
≤30d 1442 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 17% -9.5%
≤90d 1442 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 17% -9.5%
all 1442 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 17% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 17% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$540
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1332 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1442 / 1443
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day95.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 95¢ 69¢ $43 $31 −$11 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $41 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $42 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $42 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $42 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $42.98 · 3500 history records