Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf55b…358c crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%100W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$9
other 24% −$4
politics 19% −$5
sports 13% +$16
culture 4% −$1
world 3% −$4
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.9% -2.3% 100% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 26 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 134 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 6% -9.6%
all 225 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -23.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -30.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -37.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses100 / 125
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)225 / 229
History coverage159d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 19 $9 +$1 +16%
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 30? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 31 $6 +$7 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $84 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $98 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $102 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $116 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 22 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10? May 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $113 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $570 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? May 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S BUY OXEN 86¢ $9 18d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 19d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 48¢ $6 20d
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 20d
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 20d
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 21d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $84 22d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $84 22d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $84 22d
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 14¢ $1 22d
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $98 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 14¢ $1 23d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 23d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 23d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 23d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $98 24d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $103 26d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 26d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 26d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $5 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.59 · official $112.59 (match) · 474 history records