Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf55b…673f other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%73W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$12
sports 12% −$14
world 3% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.1% -10.5% 47% 47% -6.8%
≤30d 48 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 38% -29.1%
≤90d 176 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 40% -12.4%
all 177 -3.5% -12.6% 41% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 41% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 41% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 40% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 40% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses73 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$3 +197%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +87%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $2 +$3 +119%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 38m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 3h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $1 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $1 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $1 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 29h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 27¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.91 (match) · 334 history records