Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F5 0xf559…f462 sports 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 290d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,441 (+1%) realized +$26,714 · open −$11,273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%195W / 157L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,817per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$15,242est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$136,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 290d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$52,669
other 16% −$18,119
world 9% −$30,237
politics 5% +$977
economics 2% −$5,621
crypto 2% −$1,542
tech 0% −$1,908
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 40% -31.3%
≤30d 87 +9.5% -0.9% 59% 56% -4.2%
≤90d 229 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 56% -4.7%
all 352 -1.6% -10.9% 55% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 49% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 43% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 38% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 32% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$9,528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,597 vs −$4,420 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$136,384
Realized+$26,714
Unrealized−$11,273
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses195 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$15,242
Open positions14
Markets (closed)352 / 366
History coverage290d
Avg bet$6,817
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 69¢ 55¢ $48,752 $38,677 −$10,075 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $31,800 $31,576 −$224 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $14,000 $11,572 −$2,428 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 45¢ 44¢ $10,000 $9,986 −$14 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $6,000 $8,319 +$2,319 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $6,500 $7,954 +$1,454 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5,500 $5,393 −$107 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $5,000 $4,938 −$62 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $4,507 $4,493 −$15 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5,500 $4,408 −$1,092 (-20%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $4,900 $4,050 −$850 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2,100 $2,081 −$18 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,899 $1,875 −$24 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,200 $1,063 −$137 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,029 −$58 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,156 +$10,677 +105%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10,049 −$366 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9,277 +$5,287 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5,048 +$2,305 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15,589 +$11,783 +76%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $39,441 +$316 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,081 +$5,789 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26,993 −$26,660 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,105 −$5,000 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12,238 −$5,856 -48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $10,123 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $27,957 −$27,800 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,904 +$4,096 +141%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3,039 −$3,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $28,665 −$20,338 -71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,063 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,064 −$5,000 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10,150 +$9,850 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7,617 +$8,008 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30,414 +$25,142 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $12,100 −$10,550 -87%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $6,100 −$6,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $2,547 −$2,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $5,072 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13,176 +$10,494 +80%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10,069 +$2,918 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,603 −$3,580 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 08 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $15,216 −$15,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10,138 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,054 +$4,446 +146%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,049 −$3,000 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $30,000 +$1,151 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,047 +$3,203 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,045 +$2,955 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10,138 +$8,381 +83%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,038 +$3,517 +172%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $15,220 +$14,191 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10,024 +$4,018 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10,096 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3,054 +$4,446 +146%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10,108 +$5,548 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $12,162 8m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,052 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $971 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $617 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,029 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,645 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3,085 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $4,598 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $5,090 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $9,683 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $11,903 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $10,075 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $12,090 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $9,252 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $915 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $5,048 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $9,277 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10,156 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $19,427 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $10,866 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $14,815 45h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $5,081 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136,383.55 · official $136,383.55 (match) · 2572 history records