Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf555…9e72 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$254 (+1%) realized +$254 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%86W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$273
crypto 24% −$73
world 14% +$40
economics 8% +$8
sports 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -28.0% -34.9% 0% 0% -34.9%
≤30d 1 -28.0% -34.9% 0% 0% -34.9%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 0% -8.6%
all 97 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -8.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses86 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage246d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $81 −$23 -28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 15 $132 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 12 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 12 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 12 $784 +$4 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 07 $197 +$4 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 03 $372 +$8 +2%
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $224 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 30 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 29 $93 +$7 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 27 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 23 $127 +$1 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 21 $188 +$12 +6%
Over $6M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 21 $443 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 20 $356 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $126 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 08 $204 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 08 $274 +$6 +2%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 08 $298 +$2 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 27 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 12 $375 +$15 +4%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 10 $166 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 07 $86 $0 +0%
Over $90M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 24 $14 $0 +1%
Over $100M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 24 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $112 +$1 +1%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 04 $91 +$1 +1%
Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 04 $98 $0 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 03 $166 $0 +0%
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 31 $60 +$2 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $1,089 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $195 −$128 -66%
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 28 $361 +$4 +1%
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 24 $79 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 23 $168 +$2 +1%
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 20 $80 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 20 $84 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 20 $83 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 20 $135 $0 +0%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 19 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Jan 16 $76 +$1 +1%
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 15 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 13 $74 −$17 -23%
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 11 $461 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $58 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $133 32d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $136 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $123 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $788 36d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $135 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $88 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 40d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $784 40d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $0 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 41d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 476 history records