Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F5 0xf555…b36b sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$617 (+12%) realized +$595 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%79W / 64L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$456
14 days+$1,116
30 days+$1,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$676
other 13% +$229
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$5
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +28.3% +16.1% 56% 56% +28.9%
≤30d 62 +36.5% +23.5% 56% 56% +25.5%
≤90d 90 +20.5% +9.1% 52% 52% +14.7%
all 143 +11.9% +1.2% 55% 53% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 53% +6.8%
10% -8.5% 51% -3.4%
15% -17.3% 48% -12.7%
20% -25.4% 41% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$31 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$595
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses79 / 64
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions4
Markets (closed)143 / 152
History coverage210d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Team Liquid 39¢ 78¢ $35 $70 +$35 (+99%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 26¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Over 46¢ 46¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 29 $61 +$85 +139%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $87 +$384 +442%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands leading a Jun 26 $51 +$37 +72%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $99 +$64 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $94 +$53 +57%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $28 −$28 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $71 −$70 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $98 +$95 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $104 −$102 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $72 +$62 +86%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $46 +$41 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $71 +$66 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $71 +$69 +97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$44 +86%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $35 +$41 +120%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $53 +$40 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $46 +$59 +130%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $99 +$64 +65%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $85 +$142 +168%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croat Jun 17 $10 +$97 +944%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $33 +$72 +222%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$83 +325%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$79 +129%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$16 +197%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$67 +67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $53 +$34 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $146 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners AND Will Japan win on 2026-06 BUY 41¢ $10 1h
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 39¢ $36 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY T1 41¢ $61 4h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 18¢ $87 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 31¢ $49 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands leading a BUY 57¢ $51 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: 1st BUY 24¢ $64 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $99 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $48 4d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $28 6d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $71 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $94 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $98 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $104 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $51 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $72 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $46 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $51 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $51 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 7d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $72 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $71 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.19 · official $175.01 · 279 history records