Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf555…3608 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-6%) realized −$113 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$150
14 days−$150
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$34
other 36% −$141
crypto 6% −$12
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -33.1% -39.5% 23% 23% -20.6%
≤30d 66 -27.9% -34.8% 29% 29% -16.1%
≤90d 66 -27.9% -34.8% 29% 29% -16.1%
all 66 -27.9% -34.8% 29% 29% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 29% -16.1%
10% -41.0% 27% -24.1%
15% -46.7% 26% -31.5%
20% -51.9% 24% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$18 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 47
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage21d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$22 +55%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$56 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$82 +134%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $8 +$39 +510%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 +$26 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $46 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 42h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 42h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $20 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $40 46h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $41 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.06 · official $174.06 (match) · 100 history records