Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf552…a811 politics 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,231 (+1%) realized +$2,229 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%36W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,523per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$63
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$145
politics 40% −$146
sports 9% +$2,487
world 3% −$7
culture 3% −$8
economics 1% −$5
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 +3.2% -6.6% 10% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 119 -3.8% -13.0% 9% 6% -8.8%
all 177 +3.2% -6.6% 20% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 11% -8.8%
10% -15.5% 10% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 8% -25.5%
20% -31.2% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,253) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$8 · ×11.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$2,229
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses36 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,523
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $194 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,858 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,274 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,521 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,774 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,391 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5,438 −$6 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,649 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9,426 −$10 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $5,917 −$8 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,573 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $995 −$2 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,941 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $6,840 −$7 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,080 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $52 +$69 +134%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $42 +$63 +152%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,755 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,253 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $441 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $583 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,490 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,960 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $5,042 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,748 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $9,471 −$11 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $3,080 −$4 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $293 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $407 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 38m
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $525 16h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $526 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $206 18h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $569 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $570 21h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $747 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $748 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $382 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $383 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $911 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $912 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,019 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,020 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $898 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $899 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $862 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,086 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,125 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.06 · official $402.06 (match) · 635 history records