Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf54f…af23
other · 6 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$14 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage47d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 3 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -49%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 10 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 79% −$12
other 21% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 33d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 46d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 46d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 47d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -48.6% -53.5% 0% 0% -53.5%
≤30d 1 -48.6% -53.5% 0% 0% -53.5%
≤90d 3 -46.0% -51.2% 0% 0% -50.9%
all 3 -46.0% -51.2% 0% 0% -50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.2% 0% -50.9%
10% -55.8% 0% -55.6%
15% -60.1% 0% -59.9%
20% -64.0% 0% -63.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 9 history records