Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf54b…91f7 sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$623 (-18%) realized −$623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%38W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$350
14 days−$676
30 days−$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$629
crypto 8% −$25
other 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -25.1% -32.2% 30% 30% -21.7%
≤30d 128 -28.1% -34.9% 30% 29% -28.7%
≤90d 128 -28.1% -34.9% 30% 29% -28.7%
all 128 -28.1% -34.9% 30% 29% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 29% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 27% -35.5%
15% -46.8% 25% -41.8%
20% -52.0% 22% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses38 / 90
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage12d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $123 −$40 -33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $75 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $67 −$29 -43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$30 -36%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$88 +428%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 +$63 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 −$11 -21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$7 -44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $110 −$70 -63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $80 −$78 -98%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $106 −$21 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$21 +88%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$33 -66%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$80 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $203 +$283 +140%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $55 −$26 -48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$47 +229%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $262 +$82 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 +$60 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $121 −$119 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $26 +$38 +144%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $76 +$49 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 −$20 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$11 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 9m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 44¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 23¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 57¢ $80 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $54 3d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL 9z 26¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $10 3d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 27¢ $26 3d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 31¢ $3 3d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 31¢ $20 3d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 31¢ $10 3d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 31¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 21¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 13¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 14¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 28¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 71¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 21¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 46¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 58¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 39¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 48¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 59¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $108 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 15¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 24¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 446 history records