Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf549…cb5b other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,379 (+89%) realized +$2,206 · open +$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +201% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +172% what you keep after slip
Net edge+172%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,186
7 days+$1,186
14 days+$1,186
30 days+$1,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,179
other 24% +$1,651
tech 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+172.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +63.1% +47.5% 100% 100% +50.7%
≤30d 3 +42.0% +28.5% 67% 67% +50.7%
≤90d 3 +42.0% +28.5% 67% 67% +50.7%
all 4 +200.8% +172.2% 75% 75% +110.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +172.2% 75% +110.7%
10% +146.1% 75% +90.6%
15% +122.4% 75% +72.2%
20% +100.6% 75% +55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +201% · $-wt +133% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$886 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$2,206
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage196d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $319 $407 +$88 (+28%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 42¢ $0 $85 +$85 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$7 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,768 +$1,179 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $278 $0 +0%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 10 $217 +$1,471 +677%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $185 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $89 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1,768 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 28h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $60 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $1 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $39 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $19 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $26 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $82 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $13 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $2 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $2 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $4 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $6 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $2 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $2 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $9 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $11 10d
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $217 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.44 · official $487.49 · 27 history records