trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Reina Ueda as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$11 | +106% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 26 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto (SAKAMOTO DAYS) win Best Anime Voice | May 23 | $6 | +$15 | +245% |
| Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 18 | $9 | +$4 | +40% |
| Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 17 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 17 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $13 | +$7 | +57% |
| Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $4 | −$4 | -96% |
| Will "Mistake" be said during Eurovision? | May 16 | $1 | $0 | -26% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | May 16 | $3 | −$2 | -62% |
| Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 14 | $7 | −$6 | -96% |
| Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | May 13 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will Reina Ueda as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best | May 13 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 50% | 50% | +70.0% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 29% | 29% | -2.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -43.5% | -48.9% | 24% | 24% | -18.2% |
| all | 17 | -43.5% | -48.9% | 24% | 24% | -18.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -48.9% | 24% | -18.2% |
| 10% | -53.8% | 24% | -26.0% |
| 15% | -58.2% | 24% | -33.1% |
| 20% | -62.3% | 18% | -39.7% |