Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf545…4036 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$641 (-22%) realized −$656 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$466
14 days−$466
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$373
other 23% −$209
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -21.8% -29.3% 34% 34% -29.6%
≤30d 44 -21.8% -29.3% 34% 34% -29.6%
≤90d 52 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 33% -28.7%
all 52 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 33% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 33% -28.7%
10% -36.3% 33% -35.5%
15% -42.5% 33% -41.7%
20% -48.1% 29% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$46 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$656
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage37d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Fokina 37¢ 46¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $164 +$75 +46%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $176 −$12 -7%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $63 −$49 -78%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $56 +$47 +84%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $51 +$88 +173%
Set 2 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $45 +$55 +123%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $110 −$108 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$52 +128%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$15 -49%
Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $28 +$19 +67%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $152 +$155 +102%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo Jun 16 $20 +$28 +137%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $65 −$41 -64%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $19 +$22 +116%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Hurkacz Jun 16 $20 +$19 +95%
Set 2 Winner: Buse vs Giron Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 +$19 +94%
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$19 +185%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $103 +$196 +190%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $88 +$131 +149%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Fokina 37¢ $61 34m
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) SELL Noskova 100¢ $239 45m
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 68¢ $164 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $164 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $176 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ekaterina Yashina 46¢ $51 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 55¢ $51 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $152 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $14 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $63 13h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 99¢ $103 14h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 53¢ $56 14h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 43¢ $51 16h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 39¢ $51 16h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith SELL Jurij Rodionov 76¢ $58 16h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 51¢ $40 18h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $54 19h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $139 19h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 36¢ $51 19h
Set 2 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime BUY Tien 50¢ $50 19h
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime SELL Tien 100¢ $100 20h
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime BUY Tien 44¢ $45 20h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 49¢ $39 21h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 49¢ $10 21h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $61 21h
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro BUY Shimabukuro 39¢ $20 22h
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro SELL Tiafoe 100¢ $81 22h
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro BUY Tiafoe 62¢ $51 23h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 43¢ $65 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.53 · official $74.53 (match) · 86 history records