Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf53f…ace3 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-4%) realized −$868 · open +$754
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 50% -76.9%
≤30d 2 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 50% -76.9%
≤90d 2 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 50% -76.9%
all 2 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 50% -76.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 50% -76.9%
10% -26.4% 50% -79.1%
15% -33.6% 50% -81.1%
20% -40.1% 50% -83.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$604 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3,176
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$754
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $979 $1,805 +$826 (+84%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $962 $996 +$34 (+4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $481 $374 −$107 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$80 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $617 −$604 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 17¢ $180 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,014 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $500 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $617 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,176.09 · official $3,176.09 (match) · 9 history records