Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf53e…eed2
sports · 31 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$14 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage48d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 77¢ 100¢ $44 $57 +$13 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? No 80¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A FUT Esports 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 +$5 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +45%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Falcons Force (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe May 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $4 +$5 +109%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $8 $0 +4%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 26 $11 +$1 +10%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 26 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5) Apr 26 $7 $0 +3%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group A Apr 26 $5 $0 +8%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: US Lecce (-1.5) Apr 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$22
other 26% −$9
crypto 6% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 77¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $7 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $9 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $7 46h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $6 46h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $4 46h
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $4 30d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $5 30d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $5 30d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Astralis 65¢ $5 30d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY GamerLegion 65¢ $5 30d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $5 30d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Falcons Force (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY G2 Ares 61¢ $5 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? SELL No 100¢ $12 46d
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-04-27? BUY No 90¢ $12 46d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? BUY No 80¢ $12 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? BUY No 98¢ $14 46d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 46d
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season SELL LYON 91¢ $13 46d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? SELL No 79¢ $11 46d
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY LYON 82¢ $11 47d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? BUY No 84¢ $12 47d
Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5) SELL FC Famalicão 92¢ $7 47d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group A SELL Nongshim RedForce 96¢ $5 47d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 47d
Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega SELL T1 92¢ $5 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -23.4%
≤30d 14 +12.3% +1.6% 71% 71% +3.4%
≤90d 30 +2.5% -7.3% 70% 40% -9.0%
all 30 +2.5% -7.3% 70% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 40% -9.0%
10% -16.1% 33% -17.7%
15% -24.2% 30% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 27% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.53 · official $56.53 (match) · 57 history records