Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf53d…4b7c other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%46W / 72L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$131
14 days+$119
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$75
other 27% −$33
weather 5% +$8
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% −$6
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.3% -5.7% 71% 32% +1.4%
≤30d 48 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 25% -0.0%
≤90d 118 -12.7% -21.0% 39% 17% -9.4%
all 118 -12.7% -21.0% 39% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 17% -9.4%
10% -28.5% 13% -18.1%
15% -35.5% 8% -26.0%
20% -41.8% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses46 / 72
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage83d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 52¢ $237 $264 +$28 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $408 −$217 -53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$182 +177%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$105 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$65 +64%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +22%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$13 +122%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North? Jun 04 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $204 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $315 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $205 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 52¢ $204 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $284 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 46¢ $191 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $102 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $102 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $102 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $207 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $102 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 60¢ $102 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 93¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.39 · official $266.91 (match) · 401 history records