Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf53c…a9f3 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$303 (+7%) realized +$309 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%55W / 80L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$186
14 days−$188
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$38
other 37% +$294
crypto 16% −$69
world 2% −$30
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -46.2%
≤30d 43 -10.8% -19.3% 35% 35% -13.2%
≤90d 104 -32.9% -39.3% 28% 28% -20.2%
all 135 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 40% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 40% -4.2%
10% -19.3% 38% -13.4%
15% -27.1% 36% -21.8%
20% -34.3% 34% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$21 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$309
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses55 / 80
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 141
History coverage169d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $103 −$48 -47%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$55 +107%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$7 -34%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$51 -50%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$53 +172%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $21 −$3 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$84 +165%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $103 +$130 +127%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $163 −$100 -61%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $204 −$39 -19%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $51 +$44 +86%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $54 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 26h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 27h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 39h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 29¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $105 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 6d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $51 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $51 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 11d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $41 11d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 53¢ $48 11d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 11d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 11d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.12 · official $194.12 (match) · 337 history records