Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf539…42a3 crypto 1206 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,391 (-184%) realized −$12,383 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%636W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day196.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 694 -21.8% -29.2% 42% 42% -73.2%
≤30d 1132 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 56% -52.3%
≤90d 1132 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 56% -52.3%
all 1132 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 56% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 56% -52.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 56% -56.9%
15% -22.4% 56% -61.0%
20% -30.0% 56% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$12,383
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses636 / 496
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1132 / 1206
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day196.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 54¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Down 52¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3PM ET Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.33 · official $24.53 · 3500 history records