Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf536…1579 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2,283 (+11%) realized +$2,433 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$611per market
Trades / day77.5pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$3,634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$184
sports 26% +$1,723
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +23.8% +12.0% 42% 39% +2.0%
≤30d 33 +23.8% +12.0% 42% 39% +2.0%
≤90d 33 +23.8% +12.0% 42% 39% +2.0%
all 33 +23.8% +12.0% 42% 39% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 39% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 36% -7.7%
15% -8.5% 33% -16.7%
20% -17.5% 27% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$615) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +97% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$216 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,634
Realized+$2,433
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$611
Trades / day77.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $3,777 $3,627 −$150 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,718 −$58 -3%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2,023 −$44 -2%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,043 −$1,023 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,940 +$230 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $615 −$615 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $232 −$231 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$97 +95%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $863 +$805 +93%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,114 −$1,091 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $120 −$5 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $375 −$366 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $105 −$9 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$42 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $72 +$837 +1155%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $420 +$1,308 +312%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $765 +$142 +19%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $285 +$159 +56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$214 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$337 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 +$2 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $549 +$236 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $509 +$682 +134%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,416 +$643 +45%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,011 +$448 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 5m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3,182 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $637 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $1,660 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,979 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $215 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $828 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $27 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $27 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $569 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,363 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $319 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $182 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 3¢ $24 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $410 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,633.84 · official $3,633.84 (match) · 156 history records