Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf535…4103 sports 182 markets active 13h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,341 (-12%) realized −$1,348 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate69%119W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days−$303
14 days−$1,744
30 days−$1,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$324
other 20% −$188
world 20% +$154
politics 19% −$1,560
crypto 10% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -17.6% -25.5% 56% 54% -34.0%
≤30d 121 +12.7% +2.0% 69% 65% -26.2%
≤90d 173 +5.0% -5.0% 69% 53% -21.2%
all 173 +5.0% -5.0% 69% 53% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 53% -21.2%
10% -14.1% 48% -28.7%
15% -22.4% 36% -35.6%
20% -30.0% 16% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$47 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$1,348
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses119 / 54
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)173 / 182
History coverage121d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $40 −$36 -90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$5 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $20 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 19h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $25 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $20 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $20 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $27 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $20 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.20 · official $149.20 (match) · 501 history records