Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf531…e17a politics 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-4%) realized −$31 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$59
sports 20% −$7
other 19% +$2
world 16% +$40
tech 6% −$10
crypto 4% −$18
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 10 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 50% -12.4%
≤90d 31 -32.2% -38.7% 52% 35% -19.2%
all 47 -20.3% -27.9% 57% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 43% -12.9%
10% -34.8% 28% -21.3%
15% -41.1% 15% -28.9%
20% -46.9% 11% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage127d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 21 $12 −$2 -13%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 30? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +3%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +5%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $20 +$6 +27%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit Apr 29 $5 +$1 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 18 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $30 +$7 +22%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $50 +$29 +58%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 06 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $30 −$8 -26%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump say "Zelenskyy" during the State of the Union address? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during the State of the Union address? Feb 27 $10 +$1 +14%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 19 $30 +$29 +96%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $20 −$7 -36%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 13 $40 +$12 +30%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $20 +$11 +53%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $40 +$19 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 98¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $0 27d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $0 27d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 28d
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 28d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY RED Canids 89¢ $10 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 33d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov BUY Casper Ruud 90¢ $30 33d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 64¢ $5 33d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY Yes $3 33d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 78¢ $6 33d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 33d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 33d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 33d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 33d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $2 37d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $10 37d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 67¢ $30 44d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 46d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 46d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.09 · official $91.09 (match) · 99 history records