Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F5 0xf531…121c sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,510 (+7%) realized +$4,191 · open −$681
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,592per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,458
other 37% +$10,987
world 9% −$4,450
crypto 5% −$2,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.8% +5.7% 56% 56% -2.7%
≤30d 25 +16.8% +5.7% 56% 56% -2.7%
≤90d 25 +16.8% +5.7% 56% 56% -2.7%
all 25 +16.8% +5.7% 56% 56% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.7% 56% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -4.4% 56% -12.0%
15% -13.7% 56% -20.5%
20% -22.1% 52% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$2,027) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,578 vs −$1,712 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8,019
Realized+$4,191
Unrealized−$681
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions8
Markets (closed)25 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,592
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $2,900 $2,872 −$28 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 42¢ $850 $886 +$36 (+4%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 58¢ 34¢ $1,500 $886 −$614 (-41%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $850 $841 −$9 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $800 $786 −$14 (-2%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 44¢ $550 $550 +$0 (+0%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 27¢ 22¢ $250 $208 −$42 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $760 +$626 +82%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,254 +123%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $864 +$944 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $967 +$1,348 +139%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $809 +$435 +54%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,522 +$1,474 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,027 +$1,606 +79%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $762 +$798 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,373 −$1,350 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,520 −$4,450 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,617 −$908 -56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $557 −$321 -58%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $659 +$490 +74%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $658 −$650 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $1,111 −$1,100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,217 −$1,200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,262 −$1,250 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,532 +$3,587 +234%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,115 +$901 +81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,540 −$2,500 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2,331 −$2,300 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,824 −$2,800 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,523 +$1,569 +103%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,064 +$4,447 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,055 +$2,611 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $255 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $865 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,942 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $817 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $863 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $559 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,386 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,270 12h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $1,519 13h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $1,808 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,315 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,244 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,997 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,633 21h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,559 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $760 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $967 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 25h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $864 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1,373 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $809 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,027 26h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $762 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,522 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $918 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 29¢ $710 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $560 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL No 25¢ $236 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,018.89 · official $8,019.43 (match) · 56 history records