Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F5 0xf52e…b39c crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+9%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.3% -3.9% 81% 43% -1.6%
≤30d 21 +6.3% -3.9% 81% 43% -1.6%
≤90d 21 +6.3% -3.9% 81% 43% -1.6%
all 21 +6.3% -3.9% 81% 43% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 43% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 33% -11.0%
15% -21.5% 5% -19.6%
20% -29.2% 0% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records