Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf529…3ecd crypto 12 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-53%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-79.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -77.5% -79.6% 17% 17% -85.6%
≤30d 12 -77.5% -79.6% 17% 17% -85.6%
≤90d 12 -77.5% -79.6% 17% 17% -85.6%
all 12 -77.5% -79.6% 17% 17% -85.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.6% 17% -85.6%
10% -81.6% 17% -87.0%
15% -83.3% 8% -88.2%
20% -85.0% 0% -89.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records